{"name":"Agentic Finance Graph — unexplained steps","description":"A step is a material move in one of our own series, concentrated in one day and persisting. Each one is explained by a dated change of ours (/api/changepoints), by a checked note (a move of the world, measured two ways), or it stays open and the data check unexplained_step warns.","license":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","as_of":"2026-10-13T02:22:04.165Z","producer":"AFG-Pulse afg-steps (unexplained-step check over our own archived series)","method":"Per daily series: PELT (Killick, Fearnhead & Eckley 2012) on the drift-removed series with a robust noise scale proposes changepoints; one counts as a step when the move is concentrated in one day (>= z robust sd of a normal day's change), persisted for two more days, and is material. A step is explained by a dated entry in /api/changepoints or by a checked note.","parameters":{"days":60,"min_days":10,"penalty_log_mult":3,"min_seg":2,"z":5,"persist_frac":0.5,"open_days":14,"settle_days":7},"register":"https://agenticfinancegraph.com/api/changepoints","summary":{"series_scanned":187,"steps_found_60d":176,"steps_recent":99,"open_recent":0,"explained_recent":52,"acknowledged_recent":4,"settling_recent":43},"steps":[{"metric":"detections_logged","step_day":"2026-10-11","before":602,"after":717,"shift":116,"ratio":0.1927,"z":8.8,"status":"explained","explained_by":"cp-2026-10-11-detectors","note":null},{"metric":"reputation_agents_rated","step_day":"2026-10-11","before":28715,"after":29065,"shift":3067,"ratio":0.1068,"z":69.6,"status":"acknowledged","explained_by":"ack:ack-2026-10-11-agents-rated","note":"Not ours. From 11 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC a wave of feedback tagged \"starred\" began on the Base Reputation Registry: one entry per fresh rater per agent (3,753 entries from 3,727 raters on 3,746 agents by 13 Oct 02:30 UTC; none from the agent's own owner or bound wallet). Checked two ways: NewFeedback events read from the chain for 11 Oct 20:00-21:00 UTC = 88, our table = 88; 10:00-11:00 UTC = 0 and 0. The reputation ingest code was not changed on 11 Oct."},{"metric":"reputation_distinct_raters","step_day":"2026-10-11","before":11854,"after":12204,"shift":3056,"ratio":0.2578,"z":69.2,"status":"acknowledged","explained_by":"ack:ack-2026-10-11-distinct-raters","note":"Not ours. From 11 Oct 2026 16:00 UTC a wave of feedback tagged \"starred\" began on the Base Reputation Registry: one entry per fresh rater per agent (3,753 entries from 3,727 raters on 3,746 agents by 13 Oct 02:30 UTC; none from the agent's own owner or bound wallet). Checked two ways: NewFeedback events read from the chain for 11 Oct 20:00-21:00 UTC = 88, our table = 88; 10:00-11:00 UTC = 0 and 0. The reputation ingest code was not changed on 11 Oct."},{"metric":"actors_l8_plus","step_day":"2026-10-08","before":479,"after":403,"shift":-89,"ratio":-0.1858,"z":15.2,"status":"acknowledged","explained_by":"ack:ack-2026-10-08-l8","note":"Same move as ack-2026-10-07-l8 (one gradual fall over three days, detected as two steps)."},{"metric":"actors_l8_plus","step_day":"2026-10-07","before":541,"after":479,"shift":-138,"ratio":-0.2551,"z":12.4,"status":"acknowledged","explained_by":"ack:ack-2026-10-07-l8","note":"Not ours. L8+ fell in 16 consecutive runs, 541 to 389, between 6 Oct 21:49 and 9 Oct 15:51 UTC, a few dozen at a time; the ranking code (payer.mjs, lib/ladder.mjs) was not changed between 27 Sep and 12 Oct (file dates checked). Wallets dropped below the L8 floor as they spent; on 12 Oct most L8 wallets were found to belong to the TermixEscrow fleet."},{"metric":"actors_l7_plus","step_day":"2026-10-03","before":5917,"after":7681,"shift":1765,"ratio":0.2983,"z":107.4,"status":"explained","explained_by":"cp-2026-09-27-sweep","note":null},{"metric":"actors_l8_plus","step_day":"2026-10-03","before":494,"after":585,"shift":91,"ratio":0.1842,"z":18.2,"status":"explained","explained_by":"cp-2026-09-27-sweep","note":null},{"metric":"actors_l9","step_day":"2026-10-03","before":91,"after":118,"shift":25,"ratio":0.2747,"z":5.2,"status":"explained","explained_by":"cp-2026-09-27-sweep","note":null},{"metric":"agent_income_events","step_day":"2026-10-03","before":20589,"after":26177,"shift":5454,"ratio":0.2649,"z":11.3,"status":"settling","explained_by":"series began 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