{
 "name": "Agentic Finance Graph — answers to the manifesto research questions",
 "published": "2026-10-23",
 "method_fixed_at": "2026-10-23T09:13:00Z",
 "note": "Both questions were published in the manifesto with our expectation. The rules were written down before either query ran; both results are published as they fell. Drafted with AI assistance; every figure is from the queries in this folder.",
 "q1": {
  "question": "Of all USDC that left agent-bound wallets on Base since 3 February 2026, how much does the spending share move when each exclusion rule is removed on its own?",
  "expectation": "The pre-registration rule moves it most.",
  "definition_id": "research.exclusion_sensitivity.v1",
  "cutoff": "2026-10-23T09:00:00Z",
  "window_start": "2026-02-03T00:00:00Z",
  "universe": {
   "payments": 642172,
   "usd": 307980849.83
  },
  "counted": {
   "payments": 436003,
   "usd": 38479822.89,
   "share_usd_pct": 12.494,
   "share_count_pct": 67.895
  },
  "receipt_not_read_yet": {
   "payments": 137392,
   "usd": 12335464.17,
   "of_which_pre_registration_usd": 12335413.81
  },
  "rules": [
   {
    "rule": "routing hop",
    "definition_id": "pay.excluded.passthrough.v1",
    "excludes_usd": 236387395.26,
    "excludes_payments": 47847,
    "counted_if_removed_usd": 151164047.25,
    "share_if_removed_usd_pct": 49.082,
    "move_pp_usd": 36.588,
    "share_if_removed_count_pct": 73.329,
    "move_pp_count": 5.434
   },
   {
    "rule": "pre-registration",
    "definition_id": "pay.excluded.preregistration.v1",
    "excludes_usd": 156814438.21,
    "excludes_payments": 158626,
    "also_routing_hop_usd": 123703170.9,
    "counted_if_removed_usd": 59255676.39,
    "share_if_removed_usd_pct": 19.24,
    "move_pp_usd": 6.746,
    "share_if_removed_count_pct": 69.185,
    "move_pp_count": 1.29
   },
   {
    "rule": "own address",
    "definition_id": "pay.excluded.ownaddress.v1",
    "excludes_usd": 2314.01,
    "excludes_payments": 12646,
    "counted_if_removed_usd": 38482136.9,
    "share_if_removed_usd_pct": 12.495,
    "move_pp_usd": 0.00075,
    "share_if_removed_count_pct": 69.864,
    "move_pp_count": 1.969
   }
  ],
  "answer": "The routing-hop rule moves the spending share most (+36.6 points by value), not the pre-registration rule (+6.7). Most pre-registration money (123.7M of 156.8M USD) was also a routing hop, so removing the pre-registration rule alone leaves it excluded. Our expectation was wrong.",
  "checks": {
   "pre_registration_recomputed_from_mint_time": {
    "payments": 158626,
    "usd": 156814438.21,
    "disagreements": 0
   },
   "reconciles_to_published": {
    "observed_pay_usd_total": 38691484.08,
    "pre_registration_pay_usd_excluded": 551881376.15,
    "note": "the same SQL without the USDC and date filters reproduces both published metrics to the cent (snapshots of 2026-10-23 08:27 and 06:59 UTC)"
   }
  },
  "context": {
   "counted_into_own_positions_usd": 18461511.75,
   "left_control_share_pct": 6.5
  }
 },
 "q2": {
  "question": "Does the volume of on-chain reputation feedback predict whether an agent later pays anyone, once the ten most active raters are set aside?",
  "expectation": "No better than chance.",
  "definition_id": "research.feedback_predicts_paying.v1",
  "main": {
   "t0": "2026-09-15T00:00:00Z",
   "window_days": 30,
   "cohort": 24727,
   "paid_within_30d": 131,
   "base_rate_pct": 0.53,
   "auc_top10_aside": 0.4524,
   "ci95": [
    0.4218,
    0.4866
   ],
   "auc_top10_included": 0.4227,
   "verdict": "worse than chance",
   "rate_by_feedback_bin_pct": {
    "0": {
     "agents": 18140,
     "paid": 108,
     "rate": 0.595
    },
    "1": {
     "agents": 3402,
     "paid": 13,
     "rate": 0.382
    },
    "2-4": {
     "agents": 1822,
     "paid": 9,
     "rate": 0.494
    },
    "5+": {
     "agents": 1363,
     "paid": 1,
     "rate": 0.073
    }
   },
   "never_read_wallet_agents": 912,
   "feedback_before_t0": {
    "entries": 437513,
    "from_ten_set_aside": 227913,
    "raters": 11769
   }
  },
  "preregistered_robustness": {
   "t0": "2026-08-15T00:00:00Z",
   "result": "not computable: binding records begin 2026-09-06, so no agent had a binding valid at this T0"
  },
  "added_after_main_result": {
   "label": "not pre-registered",
   "t0": "2026-09-22T00:00:00Z",
   "window_days": 30,
   "cohort": 38844,
   "paid_within_30d": 163,
   "base_rate_pct": 0.42,
   "auc_top10_aside": 0.5344,
   "ci95": [
    0.4985,
    0.5722
   ],
   "auc_top10_included": 0.5014,
   "verdict": "no better than chance",
   "never_read_wallet_agents": 1446
  },
  "answer": "Feedback volume does not predict later paying in a usable way. On the pre-registered cohort it came out worse than chance: agents with more feedback were less likely to start paying (0.60% with none, 0.07% with five or more). A cohort one week later, added after we saw that and not pre-registered, sits within chance and leans the other way. Our expectation (no better than chance) was wrong on the pre-registered test, on the low side.",
  "ten_set_aside_main": [
   "0x561f2fc3d5b219cda53b4753b8c37be78c7383e1",
   "0x375cf1f4261045feb601b480ae12afb1efda761b",
   "0x45723ffa4491cf9b1a36e4e4156d47566a068b3e",
   "0x39484e5fdeedaf0916c53d9c3bf380d3f307eb5d",
   "0x6b661b7cc836c3a4df6b6e8c1e64833e164d74d0",
   "0xf653068677a9a26d5911da8abd1500d043ec807e",
   "0x071a8232eda92ef91989af3ae344a0a04c5b3023",
   "0x7b3d901abedc45c7052c62d1c8eb12996509a007",
   "0xafd44fff32b411969be461e47254c5612655a008",
   "0x031e51875a1632381964bbc5afa287d9621ae409"
  ],
  "does_not_assert": [
   "That feedback causes or prevents paying.",
   "That any rater is fake or any agent bad.",
   "That paying is quality."
  ]
 },
 "files": [
  "manifesto-answers-2026-10-23-q1.sql",
  "manifesto-answers-2026-10-23-q2.sql",
  "manifesto-answers-2026-10-23-q2-auc.mjs",
  "manifesto-answers-2026-10-23-q2-agents.csv",
  "manifesto-answers-2026-10-23.md"
 ],
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "attribution": "Agentic Finance Graph — https://agenticfinancegraph.com",
 "files_at": "https://github.com/AgenticFinanceGraph/agentic-finance-graph-spec/tree/main/fixtures"
}