Research notes · PDF
Measured Before Trusted
Our detectors run against synthetic agent wallets with known answers (an adaptation of IBM's AMLSim), the two faults that found in the live rules, a balance test that separates a drain from a purchase, and the backtest over the whole ledger behind the 11 October corrections.
Note 02 · 2 Oct 2026What the Counted Money Is
Seven investigations of agent payments on Base: own positions, loops, the price of a rank, survival, two populations, names, and a theft replayed. Version 1.2 adds where the bridged money went and the address poisoning around the theft.
Note 01 · 27 Sep 2026The Binding Record
How we join an AI agent's identity to the money it moves, and what the first census of ERC-8004 agents on Base shows once that join is made honestly.
All research notes, newest first →
New research · September 2026
Most AI-agent money is not real spending
September study: of $4.86M that left agent wallets on Base, most was routing hops or money from before the agent existed. Where it went, and why outside estimates disagree.
SecurityKnow Your Agent needs a memory
The 2026 agent-wallet drains were about behaviour, not identity. What a drain looks like on-chain, and ten ways agent money goes wrong.
VisionKeeping the books for machine money, 2026–2036
Five layers on one engine, three market scenarios, and what would prove us wrong. A plan, not a forecast.
Data healthThe checks behind every number
Assertion checks over our own tables every three hours, each one live, with the rows it found.
Live tools
Every figure on one wheel
Agents' daily spending at the hub, every measured family around it, each spoke with its own chart and 7-day and 30-day moving averages.
RankAgents seen paying (L7+)
Every agent whose bound wallet has paid a different address, with its payments, counterparties and float.
DetectionsThe anomaly log
Mint bursts, retry storms, drain shapes and owner changes, each a shape with evidence, never a verdict.
DeskWatch your own agents
Connect a wallet: agents side by side, alert rules, and notes synced to your wallet. Watch is free.
GuideRegister an agent and track its wallet
From an ERC-8004 registration to a ranked record, with every rule the code applies.
MCPConnect your AI to the ledger
A free, read-only MCP server at /mcp for Claude, Cursor or any agent framework.
Guides & comparisons
What is agentic finance?
The 2026 working definition, the four rails, the five live behaviors, and honest sizing.
02 · How-toConnect an AI agent to a Web3 wallet
Identity → wallet → policy → MCP → settlement. Kits, session keys, x402, and a security checklist.
03 · ComparisonBest agent wallet & payment providers, compared
Coinbase, Privy, Circle, Turnkey, Cloudflare, MetaMask, Alchemy and more — custody, policy, chains, rails.
04 · StatisticsAgent payments & liveness statistics 2026
Volume, ticket size, USDC share, registrations vs working agents — every figure with window, source and caveat.
05 · TreasuryWhere AI agents park idle USDC
Yield agents, ERC-4626 vaults and regulated RWA — how to evaluate a sink for machine cash.
06 · SecurityAgent wallet security checklist
Prompt injection, god-keys, where policy is really enforced, and a 12-point operator checklist.
07 · AnalysisAgentic commerce market size: forecasts vs measured
Gartner and McKinsey trillions against tens of millions on measurable rails — how to read the gap.
The standards, explained with data
ERC-8004
Passports without a pulse: registries, counts, and the 2.24% working-service problem.
PolicyEIP-7702
The valet-key model: delegation in place, session keys, and the god-key flag.
Paymentsx402
HTTP 402 machine payments: the flow, the measured numbers, the vanity-volume caveat.
MethodThe L0–L9 liveness ladder
How we count agents, verify coverage, and refuse vanity numbers.
LiveMachine-money panels
Stablecoin float, on-chain vault reads, AI-agent tokens, DeFi TVL — refreshed every visit.
ProductThe Graph
Entities, edges, views, and the API sold back to the agents over MCP and x402.
History, people and the map
Where this sector came from, who wrote the standards it runs on, and which firm owns which layer. Dated, sourced, and separated from the marketing.
September 2026: the job rail, decoded
What we track, what we solve, and everything that shipped this month — with every figure live.
HistoryHistory of agentic finance
Multi-agent systems, an unused HTTP status code, and four standards that landed in sixteen months.
PeopleWho wrote the rails
The named authors of ERC-8004, x402, A2A and MCP, with the organisation each was at during the work.
MapAgent economy map 2026
Six layers, three industries sharing one adjective, and a five-point test for who belongs on it.
WordsAgentic finance vs AgentFi vs agent TVL
Four objects quoted as one number, and the three errors that produce fictional totals.
Railx402: from status code to foundation
Coinbase, Cloudflare, and forty members including Visa and Mastercard. Plus the identity gap it leaves.
ProtocolsMCP and A2A
One reaches a tool, the other reaches a stranger. Why swapping them rots an architecture.
Partner gravity: their catalog, our qualifier
Every marketplace publishes a census of itself. None of those counts answer the only question that matters — how many of these names are economic actors. These pages run our own qualifier over somebody else's catalog, with our denominator, and publish what is blocked as readily as what is measured.
Virtuals and the Agent Commerce Protocol
A job cycle with an evaluator, a token factory, and a catalog where one wallet can be declared by scores of agents.
FetchFetch.ai and the Almanac
The oldest agent registry in crypto, and a bind rate near zero. Why that is structural, not a failure.
RuntimeFee-to-compute
Can an agent pay its own inference bill? The loop is four nodes; the address set is missing.
OlasOlas and the Mech Marketplace
The one place agents plausibly hire other agents — and the join path we would use to measure it.
FrameworksElizaOS and ai16z
A $2.4B peak, a dead token, and a framework that kept shipping. Two objects, endlessly merged.
ProofWallet sets
The addresses behind every claim we make. The same thing we ask of everyone else.
How to use this hub
- Building an agent that holds money? Start with the wallet guide, then the security checklist.
- Allocating or evaluating vendors? The provider comparison and the treasury guide.
- Writing or researching? The statistics page and the methodology — cite the window and the date, not the headline.
- Operating a fleet? Open the Desk: your agents’ books and alerts, in open beta.