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Research notes

What the ledger shows, written up and dated.

Agentic Finance Graph · Published · Last update 11 Oct 2026 · Note 03 v1.0

Dated research notes and the monthly editions of State of Agent Money, newest first. Tap a note to open the PDF, an edition to open its page. Free under CC BY 4.0; each one states its method, its exclusions and what it does not claim.

  1. State of Agent Money · October 2026The October edition on the closed monthly books: agents seen paying 5,505 to 27,897, the money counted and the share that left the payer's control, the rails, the attacks, the change register, a note on how much of the L7 count rests on one funding source, and the reconciliation with the book. Page + PDF
    edition
  2. Finding · Where the ERC-8004 registrations live, chain by chainThe reference registry read from public nodes on 40 EVM chains: 5,577,173 registrations at that address, 3.94 million of them on 0G, where one host is behind every sampled agentURI, 3.5 times Base; the two public trackers we checked publish totals below 0G alone. Corrected 25 Oct 2026 (ids start at 0; claims narrowed). Method, table, two-way check and the daily document. Page + PDF
    finding
  3. State of Agent Money · September 2026The first monthly edition: the stocks and flows of agent money on Base for September, the registrations and ranks, the rails, the incidents, the two-way checks and every change of method in the month. Frozen, hashed and signed in the statement log; the depth file behind it is a 30¢ pack. Page + PDF
    edition
  4. Note 03 · Measured Before TrustedOur detectors run against synthetic agent wallets with known answers (an adaptation of IBM's AMLSim), the two faults that found in the live rules, a balance test that separates a drain from a purchase, and the backtest over the whole ledger behind the 11 October corrections. PDF · v1.0
    7 pages
  5. Note 02 · What the Counted Money IsSeven investigations of agent payments on Base: own positions, loops, the price of a rank, survival, two populations, names, and a theft replayed. Version 1.2 adds where the bridged money went and the address poisoning around the theft. PDF · v1.2
    15 pages
  6. Note 01 · The Binding RecordHow we join an AI agent's identity to the money it moves, and what the first census of ERC-8004 agents on Base shows once that join is made honestly. PDF · v2.1
    15 pages
Earlier versions

A note is never edited after it is published: a change goes out as a new version with the change stated, and the earlier PDF stays here.

Answered: the manifesto's two questions (23 Oct 2026)

  • Which exclusion rule carries the spending figure? The routing-hop rule, not the pre-registration rule we expected. Switched off alone, it lifts the USDC spending share from 12.494% to 49.082% (+36.6 points); pre-registration, +6.7 points; own address, $2,314. Definition.
  • Does feedback volume predict that an agent starts paying? No. On the cohort fixed in advance (24,727 agents, 15 September, ten heaviest raters set aside) it came out worse than chance, AUC 0.452 (0.422 to 0.487); a later cohort, added afterwards, sits within chance. Definition.

Method fixed at 09:13 UTC on 23 October, before either query ran. Results · queries and per-agent rows · written from those files.

Coming next

  • Note 04 · Reputation without receipts. How much of the ERC-8004 feedback on Base comes from a rater that ever paid the rated agent (first measurement: 0.14%), who the heaviest raters are, and a payment-grounded share as a published series.
  • Note 05 · Agent treasuries. What ranked agents hold, priced, and how much of it cycles through their own vault positions.

Cite as: Simonyan, N. (2026). Title. Agentic Finance Graph Research Note NN, version, date, with the PDF's address. Live values for every figure: the data page and /api/state. To hear when a note is out, connect a wallet on the Desk or write to [email protected].

Questions people actually ask

How is a research note different from a page on this site?
A note is frozen on its date and states its full method, so it can be cited; the pages bind live values that move with the tape. When a figure in a note changes later, the note is not edited: a new version is published with the change stated, and the earlier PDF stays online.
Where does the data in the notes come from?
From the ledger's own measurements: the ERC-8004 registry read in full, stablecoin transfers read from the chain, receipts checked for routing hops, and recipients identified from verified contract source. Every figure resolves to a metric identifier on /def and a value on /api/state at the stated time.
Can I reuse the figures and the PDF?
Yes, under CC BY 4.0: cite Agentic Finance Graph, the note number and version, and the date the figures are as of. Because the counted set grows as checks clear, every figure is a floor for its date and should be quoted with it.